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Detailed Article

JARI Research Journal (2012~)環境・エネルギー/Environment & Energy

Development of a CO2 and Exhaust Emission Evaluation Model to Consider Non-monetary Value in the Long-term

金成 修一,平井 洋
Shuichi KANARI,Hiroshi HIRAI

 本報では,既往の将来自動車技術進化および消費者選好を考慮した場合のCO2排出量を推計する手法に,インフラや一充電航続距離などの非金銭的価値を消費者効用に加え,さらに,年間走行距離帯別に推計可能な技術選択モデルを検討した.また,多様な温暖化・排出ガス(NOx, NMHC, CO, PM)の費用対効果が考慮できるように,これまでのテールパイプから発生するTank to Wheel(TtW) CO2排出量データに加えて,燃料製造時(WtT:Well to Tank)のCO2排出量や将来の排出ガス低減技術のデータを整備することで,将来の自動車技術進化および非金銭的価値を考慮した2050年までの長期CO2排出量(TtW,WtW:Well to Wheel)および各種排出ガス量の推計モデルを開発した.これらの手法の実用性を検討するために,筆者らが想定した計画規制ケースと技術進展ケースの2つのシナリオにて,両シナリオの車両台数,エネルギ消費量,CO2排出量,NOx排出量,年間総費用(年間あたりに換算した車両価格と走行時の燃料価格)を推計した.

The Japanese global warming gas reduction target for 2030 is set at 26% (based on 2013). In the Japanese transport sector, the global warming gas reduction target is set at 28%, so this target is higher than the Japanese average CO2 reduction target. It is necessary to take immediate action on these measures. One of the CO2 reduction measurements is the spreading of next generation cars. Evaluation of spreading next generation cars has focused on the evaluation of hybrid cars in past studies. Hybrid cars can be evaluated using cost and line-up number, which are relatively easy to quantify. However, it is necessary to also evaluate electric cars and fuel cell cars that have the possibility to become cars which will spread in the future. Evaluation methods of electric cars and fuel cell cars need to consider infrastructure, distance of full charging, and the segmentation of annual driving distance range. In addition, the problem of air pollution has been in focus and measures are also being carried out in parallel with global warming measures. However, evaluation of exhaust emissions(NOx, NMHC, CO, PM)to consider the cost effectiveness perspective has not yet been studied in the automobile sector. Therefore, a method that can include the cost-effectiveness of exhaust emission measures is necessary. In this study, we developed an evaluation method of cost-effectiveness to consider the nonmonetary-value factors with monetary-value factors in each annual driving distance range in the long term. This method can more realistically show consumer preference to evaluate penetration of conventional cars and next generation cars. We can evaluate CO2 and exhaust emissions to use future technology automobile data for reducing various exhaust emissions and energy consumption. Finally, in order to consider the practicality of this newly developed method, we assume two scenarios: a planning regulation case and a technology advance case. The two scenarios evaluate the number of cars and energy consumption, CO2 emissions, NOx emissions, and annual total cost.

種別 / Article Type

JARI Research Journal (2012~)

資料名 / Title

JRJ20180902 研究速報

発行年月 / Date of Issue


分野 / Field

環境・エネルギー/Environment & Energy